Hi everybody dental man Mac Bernie or the feature race at Santa Anita on Saturday is the grade three autumn miss for three-year-old fillies going one mile on the turf you can play this race with a DRF bets account and the 300 percent deposit match that goes along with it sign up at bets dot dr f dot-com this should.
Be a fun betting race as we take a look at this field gigantic field some nice sources some of the shorter priced horses have some questions they need to answer they’ll be running for $100,000 again at one mile your morning.
Line favorite at nine to five is the Keeneland graduate Toinette winner of the grade three Edgewood back in May on Kentucky Derby weekend and they just didn’t run very well in the Belmont Oaks couple of things happened in the Belmont Oaks that concern me Matt hey she showed up with front wraps beef she was kind of just ridden very aggressively by floppy and Pratt that day and see Neil Drysdale said she came out of that race with a physical problem that’s had her on the shelf for several.
Months at nine to five considering all of those things and she is a very talented filly I might try to beat her I agree with it and in the advance for the race it was sort of the I don’t wanna say the built-in excuse but Drysdale said you know she may need one which that’s not necessarily what you want to hear on a horse that’s likely to be pushing even money but I think we do have to acknowledge if she is right and she gets back to.
The horse that won the Edgewood two starts back I think she’s probably just better than these horses you’ll note she beat rushing fault I believe that’s the only loss to date for rushing fall throughout her career and.
Understandably that was with a little bit of a peculiar ride from Xavier onrushing fall but that’s another story for another day Toinette the talent is there there’s no question about it my question is is she ready to go off this long layoff and do they have their eye on something bigger is this not the prize Belmont oaks.
Quality race produced a couple of next out winners buyers 86 won winning the Delmar oaks.
Fatale beret with a 94 she certainly fits in this race but you mentioned this might be a means to an end for Toinette the form is bad behavior is just a solid solid filly she’s been on the board in nine of 11 and maybe last time out that six and a half throw logs at this point in his career is a little bit short for her I thought she ran okay I.
Liked her at the mile that was the distance that produced that victory in the China Doll stakes and.
Her tactical speed almost ensures a good trip for her every time we queue the time form us pace projector and they actually have her out there among the leaders in this spot she can lead she can rate and she’s got some class yet there’s really not a lot to knock about her I suppose maybe if you really wanted to be very very critical you could you could.
Say that she maybe is just more of a nibbler at this.
Point she’s run second or third on six occasions but she has won on three different instances and the fact that she’s five for five in the exact date sands Anita you brought up that she doesn’t have to have the lead but she can take it if it’s given to her and more importantly I think you hit the nail on the head I didn’t like her to back in the.
Delmar Oaks because it was nine furlongs okay she’s capable going down the hill but I don’t think that’s really her trip to me a flat mile this is her game the only thing I would say I do wonder this true eleven starts I don’t think you’re gonna get any sort of real forward move out of her here I think you’re probably gonna get an 88 or an 89 buyer maybe you crack a 90 but if you think some of these other girls can possibly.
Take a step forward then perhaps that puts miss bad behavior up against it she is trained by Richard Baltus Baltus also has the 13 Flamel the 14 hey Negrita and they.
Really took the worst of it from.
A post position standpoint I thought Flamel ran well last time out in the grade to San Clemente I thought Giovanni Franco gave her a really fine ride getting.
Her down towards the inside turning into the stretch saving as much ground as possible I just wonder if the miles a little far I mean when you look and see that she’s a perfect two for two going down the hill I do wonder if that ultimately is what her game is going to be as she continues to mature and get older I agree with you perhaps this distance is a little bit far for her.
But at the same time keep in mind you’re talking about a horse iose a stop by her and her Coe anyway with an 88 there’s a real scenario where if she can overcome the post she could be interesting at a big number conversely the 14 hey Negrita may prefer this distance then the downhill turf configuration of six and a half sure and just fine last time out finishing evenly in between horses for fourth behind.
Miss bad behavior but her to prior races and I know they were against weaker competition she looked good in.
That race – starts back at Del Mar going a mile in 1/16 but this post is just a killer.
Yeah it’s very brutal and really the fact.
That she has a little bit of tactical speed I almost wonder in certain instances if you’re braking from the far outside I kind of feel like I would want a horse that is either a confirmed front runner where you have no choice but to send and try to clear or a one run closer where you just take.
Back and you can go over and save some ground with a horse like this it’s almost one of those things where it’s your own worst enemy where you have the ability to sit second and be two or three lengths off of it well if you do that you’re gonna be hung about.
Into the first turn I just think the post is gonna be too much for her to overcome formulator fact at a price the two so high society multiple stakes.
At Monmouth win under the tutelage of Chad Brown came out west first time for Jeff Mullins and was just overmatched in the Delmar OH 87 to one that day never picked.
Her feeders the formulator of fact from Mullins past five years 3-year old turf riders off a two to four month.
Left maybe Jeff’s gotten used to so high society 23% $2 20 ROI the problem is the figs are light yeah and you know I don’t mean this is a slight – Jeff Mullins we know what he’s capable of he’s a great train around in Southern California but it just feels like I mean Chad couldn’t get her to buy her anything better than.
73 and Chad’s a wizard on the grass it just it feels like to me I just don’t know how good she actually is a couple of horses trying turf for the first time Bob Baffert’s rheya winner of the UAE Oaks earlier this year second behind Mendelssohn in the UAE Derby they tried the Kentucky Oaks she’s a speed horse that didn’t break she then didn’t break when turned all the way back to six furlongs I don’t like that they’re trying turd fear.
Tis wonderful solid 11 percent with first-time turf runners but there’s a.
Lot of dirt in this family this is the family of Breeders Cup Classic winner concern the dam is a half – a stakes winning turf rattler but it’s almost like Baffert saying I gotta do something to wake this girl up yet to me this is a terrible sign to be honest with you because I kind of feel like look I’ve just been wrong about her I thought she was an okay dirt horse I like what she did over and.
In second in the UAE Derby obviously she won the Oaks over here the Kentucky Oaks draw a line through it because she didn’t get out of the gate very.
Well and just a number of things didn’t go her way then she was gone for all that time but the peculiar thing about that was all the time that she missed she was still working out pretty consistently just Baffert didn’t rate runner in races and that to me that’s that’s never a good thing and now all of a sudden you go blinkers on turf I want no part of.
Her right next door is the 12 spring Lillie this is a fillies shown some.
Promise in her career third and the grade three Torrey Pines on the dirt last time out for John sheriff’s but when you look at this pedigree what a combination Union rags as Bernardine II asked with his first time turf runs it’s bad it’s four percent winners but there’s a ton of turf on the bottom of this family this is the family of memories of silver the dams a full sister Liberian freighter who is a graded stakes winner.
At a mile on the turf I don’t know what to believe on this pedigree but I have a lot of problems playing.
Union rags on turf yeah we may be getting to the point where Union rags is eclipsed Bernardini as far as throwing terrible turf forces but or having terrible turf offspring to me I this is another one that I may have just been wrong about spring Lillie I.
Thought early on she looked very impressive and she could potentially turn into something and who knows maybe she still can and maybe it’ll be on the grass I personally got to see one before I buy and I know she’s gonna be a big number in here and there is again I feel like there is some ability here but boy the Union rags thing man you can have her Catholic boys trainer Jonathan Thomas sends out.
The six tesora this is a very lightly raised filly who I think has some upside she’s won three or five and yes she took advantage of a very fast.
Pace last time out going six furlongs in the christy cat at Belmont but I just loved the way she charged Tom to win and it’s not like she hasn’t proven herself around two.